2026 Outlook: Industry Leaders Give Their Take on the Year Ahead
- Chris Ostrowski
- 6 days ago
- 4 min read
Banking and payments sector heavyweights look to the year ahead.
As published in Retail Banker International.
POV: Chris Ostrowski, Head of Product Management, FinScan
The payments revolution ushers in a compliance transformation
It would be difficult to find anyone, anywhere in the world, who doesn’t appreciate the innovations that have transformed the way we move money. Since the turn of the millennium 25 years ago, traditional barriers and outdated systems have been consigned to the history books. Payments are faster, more secure and significantly cheaper.
But more than most people, those who work in the financial crime and compliance sphere are aware of the money laundering risks created by the rapid growth in real-time payments. Compliance teams often sit on the front lines, tasked with preventing bad actors and stopping the flow of illicit funds, and are held accountable for any failures. Regulators are telling banks not to wait for them to provide guidance and to figure out how to manage this risk on their own.
The adoption of stablecoins, blockchain, instant payments or more, are now viewed it, first and foremost, from the perspective of safety, trust and regulatory compliance. If the industry’s appetite for transformation is to become a reality over the next few years, 2026 could prove to be a milestone year that lays the foundation for future success.
From slow and costly to instant and inclusive
Identifying success in the payments industry requires recognising the enormous progress we’ve made in rapid technological innovation and remarkable democratisation of access.
For far too long, global payment networks largely relied on 20th century infrastructure. Consumers and small businesses experienced slow, expensive transactions primarily controlled by traditional banks and credit card companies. In some countries, an accessible banking network and affordable payment infrastructure didn’t exist, so individuals and businesses remained unbanked.
Fast-forward to today, and payments of all types – including retail, corporate, domestic and cross-border – are completed within seconds, regardless of whether the transfer is $5 or $5 million. Africa leads the world in mobile payments and digital wallet adoption has become the norm. Even the smallest shops on the remote islands of Indonesia can accept payments through smartphones and access their funds instantly.
KYC and the need for speed
In financial crime and anti-money laundering (AML), knowing your customer (KYC) has long been the cornerstone of safety and trust. This alone is no longer sufficient going into 2026. The ease of access to payment networks is a game changer.
Financial institutions and businesses must verify the ultimate beneficial owners (UBOs) associated individuals and entities, and whether they appear on lists of sanctioned suppliers and distributors, shipping routes and logistics partners, local banking correspondents, and more. Any risky payments must be modelled and identified before the crime happens.
The stakes are raised by the unprecedented speed at which this all needs to be done. Customers expect instant transfers to be the norm, while regulators expect instant sanction screening and AML checks to identify and stop risky payments. In the EU, for example, these reviews must be completed in under 10 seconds.
When money moves instantly, so does the risk of financial crime. Nearly 80% of compliance professionals say their current tools can’t keep up with faster settlement speeds, according to a Forrester study.
The consequences for getting it wrong are more severe than ever. In the US, enforcement actions are stronger. Pleading forgiveness and accepting a nominal fine as “the cost of doing business” is no longer acceptable. Regulators are imposing measures that restrict business growth until compliance standards are enforced across the business.
In the EU, new regulatory rules mean banks and PSPs are responsible for reimbursing victims of authorised push payment (APP) fraud starting in 2026. Unsurprisingly, there’s been pushback by the industry, as many scams begin with a phone call or social media interaction. As such, the question arises as to why those industries aren’t liable, even partially.
An additional factor to consider is the growth of AI-enabled scams, social media, third-party wallets, and private rails to move funds. These developments are exposing financial institutions and tech payment companies to new and severe risks, and need to be tackled head-on.
Recalibrating compliance models to be fit for the future
Addressing these issues requires two key ingredients: global coordination at a regulatory level, and investment in robust compliance infrastructure. We hope to see substantial progress in both areas in 2026.
With instant payments moving 24/7/365 across multiple currencies (including digital) and jurisdictions, a consistent global approach is essential. There are already fruitful conversations taking place at an industry level, between central banks and regulators as well as the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
This coordination will create an environment where the compliance standards are made clearer and processes are standardized. Divergent rules, in contrast, create unintended consequences or regulatory arbitrage.
For financial institutions and businesses, tackling these new challenges requires a complete recalibration of their risk models. With multiple payment channels and numerous types of illicit activity taking place every day, robust controls are needed at every level.
Technology (AI, in particular) offers the potential to streamline checks and simplify complex processes. It has become the cornerstone of modern compliance by amplifying human decision-making and identifying criminal and risk patterns.
Looking ahead with cautious optimism
The future of payments is digital. The advances of the past decade have laid the foundation for exciting things to come. The adoption of stablecoins, digital wallets, and routing across multiple rails points to a payment innovation 2.0 – where individuals have more control. Fintech and paytech companies can capitalize further if traditional banks don’t.
Financial institutions can no longer rely on legacy tools, dated assumptions, or slow processes. Criminals are moving faster and in more imaginative ways. Payment channels are increasing, and regulatory expectations are intensifying. Twenty-five years from now, the way we make and receive payments will be radically different. Those who adapt will be well positioned for the next era of digital transformation.
